Agenda item

Report of the Chief Executive and Director for Legal and Governance

James Rhodes, Head of Analysis and Insight, and Paul Millward, Head of Resilience, introduced the report updating the Committee on the Council’s “No Deal” Brexit planning for the end of the EU Transition period. During the presentation the following points were highlighted:

(a)  Reasonable worse case scenarios against service delivery and projects are being reviewed on an ongoing basis;

(b) Even with a trade deal some risks may develop due to regulatory changes impacting supply chains;

(c) Risks detailed in the presentation and in the report do not necessarily represent a “cliff edge” situation with immediate impact on 1 January 2021. Most are likely to develop gradually which allows mitigation to be put into place;

(d)  General risks identified by the Government include 

·  Border disruptions and supply chain disruptions.

·  Settlement scheme applications for EU Nationals – All applications must be submitted by June 2021

·  Utility supplies in terms of supply chain disruption for parts – Severn Trent Water have confirmed that there are no concerns around water treatment

·  Increase in cost of fuel and food

·  Reduction in choice of fresh fruit and vegetables.

·  Public Disorder – Local intelligence suggests there won’t be issues.

·  Medical supplies – Mitigations are in place nationally

·  Health and social care – Workforce issues have been mitigated somewhat due to Covid and the rise in unemployment as a result. Extra cost of service provision due to need for PPE, self-isolation etc. may become problematic, however local mitigation is in place

·  Economic impact on GDP potential for inflation and an increase in the cost of borrowing which may impact some projects in the City;

(e)  Specific local risks and mitigations include:

·  Winter Pressures on NHS and Adult Social Care – the Covid pandemic has added additional pressure to this risk. There may be increased pressure on hospitals to discharge people to care, which then puts additional pressure on Social Care services: This is being monitored and will be escalated if necessary;

·  Social Care External Market – Recruitment and retention issues: Unemployment is on the rise as a result of the impact of Covid on the economy and so more people will look to the care sector for employment. The EU Settlement scheme is being promoted. There is also a recruitment and retention campaign due to take place in January;

·  PPE – increased cost and disruption to supply chain: Department of Health and Social Care have stockpiles and the Council has around 60 days stockpile of PPE supplies;

·  Data Protection and Data sharing: UK law is robust and there would be no reason why the Council would not be granted an adequacy notice should one be required. Information sharing agreements will need to be addressed to ensure that they refer to UK law – this is a work in progress;

·  Construction sector projects and supply chains: Could impact on construction projects across the city. Supply chain disruption was tested through the first wave of the Covid pandemic and the situation is being monitored closely;

·  Development industry confidence: There are regular conversations with businesses and fee income is monitored;

·  Economic downturn: consulting on the Council’s Economic Recovery Plan is an ongoing piece of work

·  PFI linked to grants: If inflation increases the cost of the project will go up, but the grants from government do not increase in line with inflation. This will create a budget pressure, and it is not possible to mitigate against inflation increase. This situation will be monitored very closely;

(f)  There are two phases to the Emergency Planning arrangements, Planning which takes place prior to the event, and Response which will start on 1 January 2021. Both of these stages are split into two sections, planning and response within the Council, and planning and response by the Local Resilience Forum (LRF);

(g)  The Senior Resilience Group is a Council group of Directors who champion preparedness in their departments. A sub group, the Brexit Officers Working Group (BOWG) is made up of the designated leads for departments and subject matter experts to assess the impact  of “No Deal” on council services;

(h)  Each Departmental lead has assessed their services against the Government’s reasonable worst case scenario and the specific guidance for Local Authorities and a risk register has been developed;

(i)  The LRF Strategic Coordination Group has been meeting regularly throughout the year as a result of Covid, but has also focused on Brexit planning. Individual organisations are responsible for planning;

(j)  The LRF reports on the state of preparedness to the Government on a regular basis. This is currently on a weekly basis although this may change;

(k)  Escalation and reporting procedures have been put into place. BOWG members will report weekly on the impacts of Brexit on their services. Mitigations in the departments will be considered, and, if necessary, will  be escalated to a corporate level via the Corporate Leadership Team;

(l)  Information from the BOWG will be collated and passed to the LRF who in turn collate information from across the county and report to central government. The frequency of these reports has not yet been determined by the Government;

(m) If a cross organisational response is required then the LRF’s Strategic Coordinating Group will facilitate the organisation of that response;

During discussion and questions the following points were highlighted:

(n)  There are a number of EU funded projects that the Council is involved with. Officers have not flagged the funding for these as an issue and no concerns have been raised about existing grants from the EU;

(o)  Data sharing is a national risk and has been flagged. There may be disruption to information and intelligence sharing between national organisations, this is more national and regional risk than a Nottingham City Council specific risk;

(p)  Further information on the specific ways that Nottingham will be impacted by these risks would be beneficial, more specific information around which contracts may be impacts, which construction projects etc. Modelling around the PFI contracts, specifically the street lighting contract, can take place and be circulated to Committee members. All of these risks are monitored at the Brexit group and they can be flagged if they increase;

(q)  Risks are being monitored and being fed back to project and service managers. This is then reflected in project and service plans. The Risk & Assurance working group can look more closely at the scale of risk and add more detail to the 5 x 5 risk matrix. An indication of level of financial impact on the council of these risks would also be beneficial;

(r)  Officers will feed back to the Committee to what extent the evaluation of risk has taken into account borrowing from Earmarked reserve;

(s)  A robust Equalities Impact Assessment should take place to establish how these risks affect those people with protected characteristics, not just the economic analysis but also economic resilience within these communities. This would need to feed into the Economic Recovery Plan. The Council has a legal duty to consider equality impact assessments in all policy proposals; 

(t)  Committee members asked that the full list of the risks identified be circulated;

(u)  Some software may require EU domains, and as such, their ongoing use will not be possible or significantly restricted after 1 January 2021. IT will be consulted to ensure that there are plans in place to mitigate this situation;

(v)  Nottingham City has a strong history of emergency planning. Committee members thanked officers for their work on ensuring a robust plan is in place;

Resolved to note the risks and mitigating action identified.